A new stage is starting
in the Russian-Georgian relationship -
the stage that is connected with the
Sochi Olympics.
The nearer the Olympics
the tenser relations between
Georgia and its occupant are becoming.
It was President
of Russia Dmitry Medvedev that gave
the green light to this new stage. According to the Russian President
there is a threat to the Sochi Olympics
coming from Georgia and he called on his law enforcers to use all security measures.
It is hard to believe that vast Russia is afraid of little Georgia.
All the more that 20 % of the territories of Georgia are
controlled by this very Russia. More, Abkhazia that separates
Russia from Georgian-controlled territories like a buffer zone while the
Russian-controlled zone in the Tskhinvali region is just 40 km away from
Tbilisi and only several hundred metres from the central highway.
Thus Russia has no grounds to be afraid of Georgia although factor of
Georgia can be used as a pretext for realization of its imperial intentions.
The Medvedev's statement, as usual, was followed by panic statements of
various officials and experts as though Georgia threatens the Sochi Olympics.
These panic statements can only raise sincere smile in a reader for their
groundlessness. But there is not really a time for laughs. Russian politicians
and experts often feign dumbness to convince their citizens regarding various
issues but one should see a more serious aim behind each of these statements.
In opinion of some analysts the Kremlin wants to wreck the Sochi Olympics
as funds that were allotted for construction of the Olympic facilities have
long accumulated in the pockets of the authorities. Therefore they need a
very serious reason to justify their uselessness and failure of the Sochi
Olympics and its organization elsewhere. One of such reasons can be seen
Georgia when parading "threats coming from it". For more than a decade
the Kremlin has been unable to regulate situation in the North Caucasus.
Growing underground is causing serious problems to the territorial integrity of Russia. The Medvedev statement serves search for "scapegoat" in case of failure of
the Sochi Olympics. At this moment only 40 % of Olympic facilities have been
built in four years and it is possible that the rest of the facilities cannot
be built in the remaining two years. In addition, tried and tested
method of Putin - terrorist attacks on the Olympic facilities can
be used which would be blamed on Georgia. On one hand, it seemingly
confirms threats coming from Georgia that can give the Kremlin free
hand in unleashing yet another aggression against Georgia or
strengthen its positions in already occupied territories. In reality,
the Kremlin does not really need the Olympics as in case of the
above-mentioned scenario vast sums of money allotted for
the event will accumulate in pockets of the authorities, position of
Russia in Abkhazia will be strengthened and its annexation will be
quickly legalized, built objects will be distributed by persons close
to the authorities as a result of which the best section of the
rich coastline of Sochi will become their property. The only thing
that can be lost because of non-holding of the Olympics is its image
which was never taken into account by the Kremlin. But, it seems,
for this case they need a serious "scapegoat" and Georgia is intended
for this purpose. Approximately the same position is shared by Russian expert, head
of the Islamist committee of Russia Heydar Jamal. In his opinion,
corrupt Russian officials in the top ranks of the government need
a new civil war in order to hide billions stolen on the Olympic
construction. "And this war will soon start" – says Jamal in whose
opinion the Demodedovo terrorist attack, killing of tourists in
Karachay-Cherkessia and many similar cases "were staged from the above".
"A reason for closing the Sochi Olympics is already being prepared
as money allotted for the construction has already been stolen" –
says the expert. According to Jamal those who stole billions need a kind of
situation when the world community to see that Olympics cannot
be hold in Sochi. And, additionally Russian society should not
have time to count the money. "That is why now we are on the
brink of the third world war" – says the expert. The head of the Islamic committee of Russia believes that, most
likely, this war will start in Ingushetia as it is situated in the
centre of the North Caucasus and concentration of people and
problems is high there. "If anybody wants to blow up a situation
Ingushetia is an ideal place for this – says he – I believe that in
this case we are unable to change development of the event.
It is impossible to stop an avalanche with a ski pole. But
we must meet unavoidable with open eyes and understand
who is to blame. Therefore openness is a must for us now". The above-mentioned statement of Medvedev as we have
already mentioned was followed by reactions in Russia's
political and other circles. First deputy chairman of the
Russian Federation Council Alexander Torshin is one of those
who are trying to convince its population in threats coming
from Georgia. In an interview that he gave to the Nezavisemaya
Gazeta newspaper Torshin accuses Georgia of, "imagine, the
Demodedovo terrorist attack. Trying to convince readers in
incapability of leader of "Caucasus Emirate" Doku Umarov to
carry out such terrorist attack Torshin stated that was
organized from abroad. And when a journalist asked whether
he could name a specific country Torshin said: "Sure, I can
tell you. Although I understand that my words can cause
misunderstanding and outrage but, in my opinion, it was
Georgia and its ruling regime". To strengthen his version the
Russian politician stated that "the Saakashvili regime does
not need Umarov at all to carry out terrorist attacks as it has
such Ossetian traitor as Sanakoev and his agents".
Sick fantasy of Torshin makes us draw the following conclusions:
1. The anti-Georgian hysteria in Russia is still at its peak;
2. Russia's leadership has given a carte blanche – to accuse Georgia
in all its visible and invisible troubles;
3. Russian authorities are trying to cover Umarov and shift the blame
on Georgia. Not far from Torshin are Russian journalists as well. The newspaper
Trud published an article in which the author tries to convince
readers that Georgian missile can reach Sochi. Funny, isn't it?
But the author of the article is not amused, and he, on behalf
of "experts of the newspaper" claims that Tbilisi "is preparing for
a revenge for the defeat in the August 2008 war against Russia
and for this it is asking the United States for armament ".
According to a statement of certain political analyst Vyacheslav
Tseluyko given in the same article, "from the fact that Georgia
has asked the U.S. for antiaircraft and antitank complexes
it does not follow that it is preparing just for defending".
To strengthen his "expert opinion", Tseluyko gives an example
of Patriot-3 complex, which can pinpoint targets at a distance
of 180 km. On this basis, Tseluyko states that in this case
Georgia will be able to shoot down all kinds of aircrafts in the
vicinity of the Olympic Games in Sochi. Wikipedia reports that the cost of nine batteries of the
Patriot-3 amounts to $ 9 billion, i.e. approximately twice the
budget of Georgia. Therefore, there is no point in discussing
the view of "expert" Tseluyko. Ultimately, analysts of the newspaper Trud discussed three
versions of the war between Georgia and Russia, also noting
that, according to first two versions it is Georgia that attacks
and only in one case it is Russia. The main thing is that
the version of the beginning of this war by Russia is regarded
as "fantastic." It is clear that in this case we are dealing
with propaganda, because there is only one version of the
resumption of war between Russia and Georgia – when it
is started by Russia. Everyone knows that Georgia did not
start the war either in the early nineties, or in August 2008
and unilateral assurances, more than once voiced by the
Georgian President from the international tribune and
later confirmed in writing before the international organizations,
leave no doubt that this should not be expected in the future.
On the other hand, Russia's renunciation of use of force before
the international community clearly points to the fact that
Moscow has not written off its aggressive plans and still
considers military aggression as a means of continuing the
occupation of Georgia. Russian expert Konstantin Borovoy also notes high
degree of probability of war between Russia and Georgia.
According to him, against the backdrop of increasing
tensions in Russia, when Russian authorities cannot
cope with problems in the North Caucasus and they
continue to create an image of an enemy in the face
of Georgia, likelihood of recurrence of military conflict
between Russia and Georgia is becoming more apparent.
Borovoy also commented on Medvedev's statement and
noted that the purpose of the President of Russia is
to tarnish the image of Georgia, to show that allegedly
Georgia plays a destructive role in the region. At the
same time, the expert notes that the Kremlin believes
that Europe will justify Russia's invasion of Georgia, which
"threatens the Sochi Olympics, is preparing terrorists
on its territory and actively supports North Caucasian
separatists." According to Borovoy, the Kremlin is happy
with this policy because it will be possible to prove the
need of a firm hand to the public. In such circumstances,
in 2012 the population will again support Putin. "While there is a democratic government in Georgia, and
authoritarian one in Russia, the culprit for the Kremlin
will always be the official Tbilisi. This is an issue that Europe,
unfortunately, does not want to understand. All this is a
prerequisite that the Kremlin does not rule out war with
Georgia and is practically preparing the international community
for this ", - said the Russian expert. Possible scenario of the situation can be seen in a recent
statement one of the authors of anti-Georgian hysteria,
Duma member Sergey Markov. According to Markov,
"Russia will continue its policy aimed at de- blocking of
Armenia, Abkhazia and South Ossetia." So what can this
statement of Markov mean? If under de- blocking of Abkhazia
and Tskhinvali region (so-called South Ossetia) one can
understand their introduction onto the international arena
as independent entities, when it comes to Armenia one must
understand something quite different. Armenia, that is
squeezed in the South Caucasus region, on the one side
is blocked by Turkey and Azerbaijan - with which it had
rather strained relations, Iran, with which relationship is
relatively better, although far from good and here, first
of all, plays the role of the Muslim factor - and Georgia,
which has long been targeted by the Kremlin and the
Kremlin-controlled Armenian circles. In this case de-blocking
of Armenia can only mean one thing - Russia needs to
take control of roads and infrastructure in Georgia -
ports that will open practically uncontrolled access
to the Black Sea and Russia. All the more that military
bases of Russia are still located in the neighbouring
republic and their provision costs the quite a lot to
the northern neighbour. Therefore, one can expect
Russia to occupy the territory of Javakheti and this
will enable it to effectively establish control over all
of south Georgia. And to take control of the central
highway it will have to only move troops stationed
in Tskhinvali region a few hundred yards. At the same
time, it must be remembered that today repair works
are being conducted on the railway in Abkhazia and
upon their completion Russia will put it into operation.
Control of the central highway and the resumption
of communication on the railway in Abkhazia that
is so much necessary for both Russia and Armenia,
will fully connect Armenia, Abkhazia and Tskhinvali
region with each other, thereby de-blocking all
three regions. Not to mention overthrow of the
government of Georgia and that Russia will put its
puppet in power, as it is a self-evident process,
which, as one of the strategic objectives, will
accompany the Russian aggression, if such will
take place. All the more that in recent years Russia
has openly expressed such desire. Events can unfold according to such scenario, in the
worst case, of course, if Europe, America and Africa
turn a blind eye to the Russian aggression, if for
them the Sochi Olympics will be more than Georgia,
if in the future they decide to be obedient slaves
of Russia and protect its interests more diligently than
their own principles and future. Although at this stage
it is difficult to say anything specific about the Russian
aggression as it can be expected at any time. Likelihood
of aggression is also increased by the fact that some close
to the Kremlin opposition forces are evading work on
development of concept of security of the Georgian
leadership. As if security of their own country is of no
concern to them and, quite the contrary, they are
waiting for yet another insidious plan of Russia to be carried out in Georgia. | 
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